Paul McKeown

Energy

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 I am a climate 'realist' not a denier and I understand how strongly people feel about the threat of global warming and the need to reduce global CO2 emissions.

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But I also believe there are some realities of the Australian situation, which we really need to have a very serious and honest conversation about.

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Here are my thoughts...

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Our energy prices are rising, and our reliable energy supply is now under critical threat.

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We are attempting to transition away from a sovereign source of reliable power (our coal and gas), which unlike our competitors, we have in abundance in our own country - and we want to transition to an unreliable source of power based on imported and limited-life alternative energy products, which cannot meet our needs.

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Australia's contribution to world CO2 emissions is negligible, but the risk we are taking by giving away our sovereign ability to generate cheap reliable power and instead become reliant on other countries technology and their products is, I think - a grave national mistake. It will come at too high a cost to us, with no measurable benefit to the environment.

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If we continue along this path, our energy prices will continue to rise, our industries will continue to decline, our sovereignty will be given up, and our people will suffer... 

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The problem is, we are now so heavily invested, emotionally and financially in the transition, that we are now seem unable to recognise the impending disaster and incapable of altering our course

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In aviation human factors, we call this 'task fixation' supported by 'confirmation bias' and these are insidious factors in many air crashes. 

 

I think we need to 'pull up', reassess the situation with reason and perspective, and then with strong political leadership, take decisive action to do the right thing for Australia.

 

Here's what I think we need to do...

 

HELE COAL FIRED POWER

​After decades of neglect, we need to start putting money back into our crumbling sovereign power infrastructure. We have to upgrade our dilapidated coal fired stations (many now running at 75% beyond their original design life and beginning to fail), by replacing them with the new state of the art of high efficiency, low emission (HELE) 'supercritical' plants. HELE plants use the latest modern technology to produce reliable power from coal with low emissions. These new HELE plants are the perfect alternative for Australia with our abundant supplies of clean burning black coal, and we should leading the world in their design and construction.

 

GAS

Where appropriate, we should continue to use natural gas power generation, but we should be using stable Australian offshore natural gas supplies, absolutely avoiding gas imports, ...and coal seam gas extraction which, like carbon sequestration is so destructive to the subterranean environment. We should also ensure that 'emergency' diesel fuel (imported and high polluting) that (with the shutdown of coal stations) often secretly powers our gas generators now, does not become a normalised solution.

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HYDRO AND DAMS

​We need to invest in large scale water infrastructure projects.

 

We've got to build dams anyway to support our rapidly growing population with a water supply, so it makes sense to also use those projects for hydroelectric power generation. Building dams is a wonderful way humans can give back to the planet, by creating a habitat for wildlife and improving local microclimates. Primary hydro is a one way solution though and in the absence of melting snows, we will need some bold infrastructure to maintain water throughput. Using the abundance of wet season flows in Australia's North is as good as melting snow...but harnessing this will take some serious engineering and political willpower. Pumped hydro is useful in a secondary accumulator function to primary power generation, and should continue to be utilised where appropriate.

 

NUCLEAR 

​Like coal, Australia has an abundance of nuclear fuel supplies. We are a geographically and politically stable country, and so it makes sense that we should investigate nuclear power.

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Nuclear is not currently an affordable, or necessary replacement for coal, however, and doesn't really need to be for about 1200 years at current coal usage rates, however...

 

We should begin immediately investing in nuclear power research and development for the future. Most desirably this would include getting ourselves to the cutting edge of nuclear fusion technology.

 

There is also a potential and very useful application for small scale nuclear reactors in Australia to provide abundant local power to remote communities and towns which currently rely only extremely long-range transmission lines, or dirty diesel generators...this should be explored.

 

The goal of Australian nuclear power, if and when we go for it - should be safety, security and self-reliance. We must own any new technology ourselves and become the experts in it. This should be our thinking with all technology, but it is fundamental we do this with nuclear power.

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SOLAR / WIND / BATTERY 

​Solar and wind generation do of course have a big place in our energy model, it's just that they can't be the only source. Domestic solar on rooftops, and where environmentally appropriate solar and wind farms, certainly have a place in the Australian energy landscape, although we must immediately start making these products ourselves!

 

Large scale batteries to store wind and solar power are not appropriate for Australia as they are high cost, high depreciation, thermally unstable and imported. They also lack the 'push' capacity to move electricity across the distances we require in our vast continent. Small scale domestic batteries for reducing reliance (and cost) on the grid and for supplying emergency power, I think are a great idea in Australia with our propensity for storms and other dramatic environmental events, and their uptake should be encouraged.

 

Rather than pursuing the impossible dream of total reliance on wind and solar, a better philosophy for these alternatives would be to use them like the 'down-flow' of 'pumped hydro' - that is, to reduce demand on the base load plants when the sun is shining or the wind is blowing. One of the issues with the rapid uptake of domestic roof top solar in Australia has been the inability of our old technology coal fired stations to modulate their power output to suit the conditions, i.e. to reduce output when the alternatives are strong, and increase it rapidly when they're not. This has been both a technological and commercial problem, which in the rush to get out of coal - has not been adequately addressed.

 

Our future HELE coal fired stations, must be designed so that they can readily modulate their output to integrate the alternatives seamlessly into our energy grid. This can be readily done. 

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ELECTRIC VEHICLES

​Electric vehicles are great for reducing air pollution in our cities and their uptake should be encouraged. Cheap reliable base load power for vehicle charging stations generated from our revitalised sovereign power generators will help support the growth of electric vehicle use. For Australians who live in the bush, or who love to get out of the cities on weekends, they must not be penalised for requiring larger diesel powered vehicles, which over our vast distances and on our terrible roads, are the only current option for safe and effective transport away from the city.

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​CONCLUSION

​Remember, these are my views only - backed with a perspective gained over a lifetime of direct interaction with the weather and observation of the earth from the air.

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This perspective, and some understanding of international geo-politics, helps shape my ideas, and I guess has led me to a certain cynicism of the direction we are taking on energy, and the forces behind it. It has made me very concerned for Australia.

 

I am sharing my perspective with you simply to offer an alternative view to the mainstream, and to get you thinking critically about the issue. 

 

Of course, I'd love to talk to you more about Australia's energy and to hear your important views too.

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